Telegram's Latest Plan

Note: This essay draws on my notes from my research for "The Telegram Labyrinth." However, I feel comfortable with a style that blends my musings, facts, and some "what if" scenarios. In this essay, I present some information about the Skolkovo recipe, an approach to US capital markets that requires a specific page from a financial engineering playbook. Most of the information originated in Russian social media; for example, online articles, Telegram messages, items in PCNews.ru, and VKontakte pages. Remember, the statements in this essay are from my notes and should be viewed as working hypotheses. Verify before you trust any of my observations. Please, keep the disclaimers in mind as you review this briefing document.

Earlier today (May 6, 2026), we posted a news item about Telegram's Pavel Durov dancing to the fast-paced kazachok. Imagine 140 to 160 beats per minute with the French judiciary, investors in TON Strategy Company and Alpha Compute Company, and the hundreds of Telegram partners and developers watching. You can read this short item and its as-yet unanswered questions on our Beyond Search opinion site. Click here for the source document

In this short essay, I want to consider a potential issue the change imposed on the TON Foundation. As you may recall, after Telegram found itself in trouble for fund raising for its crypto currency, Pavel Durov showed off his ballroom footwork. He created a "foundation" to managed the crypto currency and the blockchain apparatus that powered the proof-of-stake used to validate transaction. When the TON Foundation needed a legal home, Durov registered the allegedly independent, community-centric entity in Switzerland. The Foundation rented an office in Zug, Switzerland, a city considered the nerve center of crypto in the country.

In the last 72 hours, the TON Foundation relinquished its control of the TONcoin and its Telegram-developed technology. As I write this, I am not able to explain [a] what the future of the TON Foundation will be, [b] what role Max Crown, its president, will play in the new incarnation of Telegram or Version 2.0 of TON Foundation, or [c] whether the tactical moves will cause the TONcoin to regain lost value and support the ambitious attempts to create revenue from two, nearly simultaneously financial engineering "plays" to tap the US capital market.

The change in the status of the TON Foundation appears to be one that calls into question the original purpose of the TON Foundation. With control of the TONcoin and its plumbing to Telegram could be interpreted as management actions that are at odds with the Swiss registration of the foundation.

Swiss financial regulators have taken a benign view of the TON Foundation; however, the music accompanying the Durov kazachok performance may have some knock-on actions. It is possible that Swiss authorities may take a close look at the TON Foundation and probe its financial underpinnings. Although less likely, US regulators might inform their Swiss counterparts about Telegram's links to KuGroup and its activities which led to a fine and change in management at that firm. An even more remote possibility is that aggrieved partners and developers of mini apps and dApps (distributed applications) for the Telegram platform could pursue legal action if their agreements for funding appear to be broken without cause.

Pavel Durov has some challenges to face in 2026. He is awaiting trial in France on a number of serious online criminal charges. Russia has been taking periodic steps to curtail the use of Telegram by Russian citizens. The Kremlin alleges that the service may be violating terrorism rules. If the Swiss were to launch an investigation into the TON Foundation, Pavel Durov's time will be stretched to deal with legal matters in three different countries. That is time that might be better allocated to addressing the softness of the value of the TONcoin and the technical work necessary for his company to deal with possible competitors from Silicon Valley.

It is interesting to think about Telegram's artificial intelligence initiative branded Cocoon. Other companies have raced ahead with smart software applications and services. Like Apple, Telegram has either been unable to seize value from smart software. Alternatively, maybe Pavel Durov is a genius who saw that massive investments in AI would not yield substantial revenue.

With the retaking of the TONcoin, it is possible Pavel Durov is a brilliant strategist. On the other hand, he might be making clear that he has lost his magic touch. The dancing exhibition has not ended, and if it continues too long, the performer could collapse.

Stephen E Arnold, May 6, 2026