Pavel in a Hot Pelmeni: Alleged Terrorism

Pavel in a Hot Pelmeni: Alleged Terrorism

Note: This essay draws on my notes for my forthcoming monograph "Post-Telegram Cyber Crime." However, I feel comfortable with a style that blends my musings, facts, and some "what if" scenarios. In this essay, I offer what appear to be factoids and a bit of interpretative commentary. Remember, the statements in this essay are from my notes and should be viewed as working hypotheses. Verify before you trust any of my observations. Please, keep the disclaimers in mind as you review this short essay. A "pelmeni" is a small, hot snack sometimes served with vinegar.

"Real" news outlets like Reuters and the Associated Press (now AP like the defunct supermarket) reported a somewhat surprising action by the Kremlin. On July 29, the Russian Federal Security Service or FSS became annoyed with Pavel Durov's alleged refusal to remove Groups and Channels used by Ukrainian officials and warfighters and cyber fraud operators.

One colorful factoid from the Indian Express recounted that several dozen users of a dating chatbot had been arrested. These 12 to 22 year olds were not dating. The allegation is that the Telegram miniapp was used to recruit individuals who would commit sabotage for the Ukrainian government. Click here for the source document

Russian authorities have been taking steps to bring Telegram to heel for months. Access to Telegram has been made more difficult unless one used a virtual private network (VPN). The Kremlin imposed blocks on Facebook, Instagram, X.com, Signal, and Viber. Notably WhatsApp and Telegram have just been restricted.

With Durov's brother and some core engineers working on Telegram projects and living in Moscow, why didn't the FSS take direct action against these individuals. That type of pressure strikes me as more useful than an international arrest warrant for a person already awaiting trial in France.

Based on the research for my new monograph "Post Telegram Cyber Crime", I think there are several factors motivating this paper action; to wit:

1. Some in Russian government agencies rely on Telegram to communicate with those involved in the "special operation," suppliers in Russia and in Russia-friendly countries, and certain special Groups and Channels on Telegram useful to these individuals. Some want Telegram cut off; others in the Kremlin want Telegram to operate, just under Russia's auspices. That explains the wishy washy approach to bringing Pavel Durov (the GOAT) to the barnyard for milking.

2. Certain influential figures in Russia rely on Telegram to provide a dark money rail for funds obtained in ways that may not make large regulated financial institutions comfortable. Telegram has taken what I characterize as gentle action against Chinese money laundering operations. However, some of these just rebrand and continue to use the mostly reliable Telegram systems. These powerful individuals exert influence over certain Kremlin decisions.

3. Chopping Telegram out of Russian systems creates a blind spot or blind spots for Russian military operators and their fellow travelers. My team and I have heard reports about Telegram's usefulness to Russian forces. Prohibiting Telegram could reduce Russia's military effectiveness. (Mr. Putin insists that Russian forces are effective and winning, but why reduce that level of performance?) Therefore, some Telegram is better than no Telegram.

4. Why not put pressure on the Russian data centers and service providers hosting or relaying Telegram content? A former Russian Space Force officer is a key player in some Telegram technical services. According to what I have learned on Telegram about this service provider, Pavel's brother provided some code to this firm and remains friend with one of its senior managers. The answer, in my opinion, is that the FSB wants to control Telegram and have access to any content traversing the platform. With an alleged 65 million users in Russia and tens of millions in Ukraine, Telegram is a gold mine for a number of government activities.

Pavel Durov (the GOAT, remember?) does not know when he will go to trial. He has to check in with the French judiciary and get permission for travel. I don't think the French government will put Pavel on a flight to Moscow for trial in that country. The French are making good progress by destabilizing Telegram, causing the GOAT to bleat when the system goes down or when updates have to be rolled back and when key engineers quit. The stunning takedown of more than 5,000 bad actors may have been the result of great police work, but my instincts suggest that Pavel blew the whistle on what he considered expendable bad actors in order to show the French he is trying to be a good pet GOAT.

Until Russia picks up Nikolai and the engineers working for Telegram like some of those at Skolkovo who contributed to the Cocoon AI project, the Kremlin action is a slight escalation. But until Nikolai is in a prison cell, Telegram will continue to be something the FSB wants in its pocket but cannot grasp with its latest hand wave.

Stephen E Arnold, July 29, 2026